Daily Market Outlook, March 11, 2026
Daily Market Outlook, March 11, 2026
Patrick Munnelly, Partner: Market Strategy, Tickmill Group
Munnelly’s Macro Minute…
In the short term, market sentiment appears heavily focused on the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) proposal for what could be the largest release of oil reserves in history. According to The Wall Street Journal (WSJ), this release would surpass the 182 million barrels released in 2022 following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. However, the WSJ notes that unanimous approval from all 32 IEA member states will be required during today’s meeting. Despite ongoing military tensions in the region, including incidents in the Strait of Hormuz, Brent crude oil prices remain around $88 per barrel—lower than much of yesterday’s trading range, which anticipated favourable news from the IEA. This moderation in oil prices has contributed to a slight pullback in U.S. Treasury yields, with the 10-year rate now at 4.14%, and has supported further gains in several Asian equity markets. For now, the risk-on sentiment triggered by Monday’s late turnaround in response to former President Trump’s comments persists, though momentum appears to be waning, leaving an air of fragility. Normally, the release of monthly U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) data would serve as a key focal point for macro investors. However, confirmation of February’s headline inflation near the 2.4% year-over-year consensus seems unlikely to dominate market sentiment today. Instead, the evolving dynamics in energy markets have introduced a wider range of potential scenarios for March and beyond, just as inflation expectations were beginning to stabilise following the recent tariff shock. Meanwhile, gold’s performance last week was somewhat muted given the prevailing risk aversion, but it has been steadily gaining ground, now trading above $5,200 per ounce—exceeding most of last week’s range. This may be one of the most telling market signals, as the continued demand for safe-haven assets underscores the persistent uncertainty and high-stakes unpredictability in the global economic landscape.
The MSCI Asia Pacific Index advanced 1.5% for the second consecutive day as China’s February trade surplus of US$90.98 billion and monthly export total of US$299.88 billion may not be unprecedented, but they underscore a remarkable performance in the year’s first two months. Typically, the Lunar New Year holiday disrupts trade flows, leading to weaker figures during the holiday period. However, the 2026 data shows no such trend. February exports surged nearly 40% compared to last year, and combined exports for January and February were up 21.6% from 2025. Adjusting for the ongoing decline in export prices, this translates to approximately a 25% increase in volume—a substantial leap for an already high baseline. While stronger-than-expected global growth has bolstered demand for Chinese goods, such rapid acceleration is unlikely to go unnoticed. Although the world’s attention is currently focused on Middle East tensions and the recent curtailment of US tariffs by the Supreme Court, scrutiny is bound to return to Beijing. This raises the question: how will China respond? One likely strategy involves tolerating faster renminbi appreciation, a move that could preempt accusations of mercantilism. Such a policy would also align with President Xi’s broader goal of increasing the renminbi’s appeal as an alternative to the US dollar. However, this approach hinges on the assumption that the rest of the world remains unable to mount a coordinated and effective response.
Overnight Headlines
IEA Proposes Largest Ever Oil Release From Strategic Reserves
Deleted Tweet From Energy Sec Sends Oil Markets On Wild Ride
Trump Says The Iran War Is Nearly Won But Israel Has Other Ideas
US Strikes Minelaying Ships In Iran After Warning Of 'Intense' Bombing
Israel Plans To Expand Budget By $13 Billion For Iran War
Iran’s Cheap, Plentiful Weaponry Puts US Military Under Strain
China Irked By Last-Minute Scramble To Plan Xi-Trump Summit
Japan 5-Year Bond Sale Sees Firmer Demand Than 12-Month Average
G-7 Asks IEA to Prepare Scenarios for Oil-Stockpile Release
Hormuz Disruptions Will Hit Food Prices as Well as Oil, UN Warns
Amazon Looks To Borrow Almost $50 Billion Through Bond Sales
Oracle Jumps On Strong AI Cloud Sales, Fiscal-Year Outlook
Salesforce Plans To Raise Up To $25 Billion To Fund Buybacks
JPMorgan Marking Down Loan Portfolios Of Private Credit Groups
Oil Traders Line Up $7 Billion in Credit To Weather War Turmoil
Boeing Tumbles After Wiring Flaw Found On 737 Max Planes
FX Options Expiries For 10am New York Cut
(1BLN+ represents larger expiries and is more magnetic when trading within the daily ATR.)
EUR/USD: 1.1650 (€1.3bn), 1.1570 (€728m), 1.1675 (€707m), 1.1700 (€2.6bn), 1.1750 (€752m)
USD/JPY: 155.00 ($1.1bn), 155.50 ($512m)
AUD/USD: 0.6900 (A$597m), 0.7105 (A$566m)
CFTC Positions as of March 6, 2026:
Equity fund speculators trim S&P 500 CME net short position by 66,786 contracts to 399,180 Equity fund managers cut S&P 500 CME net long position by 8,773 contracts to 996,776
Speculators increase CBOT US 5-year Treasury futures net short position by 25,863 contracts to 2,090,794 Speculators trim CBOT US 10-year Treasury futures net short position by 119,513 contracts to 654,507 Speculators trim CBOT US 2-year Treasury futures net short position by 9,495 contracts to 1,338,541 Speculators trim CBOT US UltraBond Treasury futures net short position by 24,793 contracts to 255,694 Speculators raise CBOT US Treasury bonds futures net long position by 15,191 contracts to 20,265
Bitcoin net long position is 1,011 contracts Swiss franc posts net short position of -41,283 contracts British pound net short position is -72,686 contracts Euro net long position is 136,498 contracts Japanese yen net short position is -16,575 contracts
Technical & Trade Views
SP500
Daily VWAP Bullish
Weekly VWAP Bearish
Above 6800 Target 6920
Below 6700 Target 6500
EURUSD
Daily VWAP Bearish
Weekly VWAP Bearish
Above 1.1675 Target 1.1730
Below 1.15 Target 1.1410
GBPUSD
Daily VWAP Bullish
Weekly VWAP Bearish
Above 1.3450 Target 1.3550
Below 1.3400 Target 1.3150
USDJPY
Daily VWAP Bullish
Weekly VWAP Bullish
Above 157.50 Target 159.40
Below 155 Target 152
XAUUSD
Daily VWAP Bullish
Weekly VWAP Bullish
Above 5150 Target 5325
Below 5200 Target 4900
BTCUSD
Daily VWAP Bearish
Weekly VWAP Bearish
Above 78k Target 81.5k
Below 75k Target 53k
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Patrick has been involved in the financial markets for well over a decade as a self-educated professional trader and money manager. Flitting between the roles of market commentator, analyst and mentor, Patrick has improved the technical skills and psychological stance of literally hundreds of traders – coaching them to become savvy market operators!