Crude Surges Higher Despite Record IEA Release
Crude Spikes Again
Crude prices are on watch today following a fresh spike higher yesterday which saw crude futures surging by more than 11%. The push higher reflects heightened uncertainty around the Iran war and the concern that the conflict is showing no signs of stopping despite Trump’s comments earlier in the week that the war might soon end. Continued disruption in the Strait of Hormuz and threats form Iran that it will push crude to $200 p/b is clearly worrying markets ahead of the weekend.
Record IEA Release
Indeed, the rally comes despite the IEA announcing a record emergency reserve release midweek of 400 million barrels. This is more than double the amount released in response to the 2022 Russia/Ukraine-war oil spike. However, for now at least, it seems the move has been ineffective with crude on course to end the week firmly higher.
US Waives Russian Crude Sanctions
Alongside news of the IEA’s record reserves release, traders are also digesting news that the US Treasury has lifted sanctions on Russian energy products, allowing for the sale of crude over a limited window up to April 11th. The move is intended to help add additional downside pressure for prices, alongside the IEA release. However, with around 20m barrels per day currently locked in due to the war, traders are sceptical that either move can help to bring prices meaningfully lower while the war rages on. As such, risks remain skewed towards higher prices for crude near-term unless we see unexpected news of a ceasefire or negotiation plans emerging.
Technical Views
Crude
The market is holding around the $95.06 level currently and with momentum studies bullish, focus is on a continuation higher with the $101.69 level the next resistance to note. To the downside, $84.60 remains key support, with the bull outlook holding while price remains above that marker.
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With 10 years of experience as a private trader and professional market analyst under his belt, James has carved out an impressive industry reputation. Able to both dissect and explain the key fundamental developments in the market, he communicates their importance and relevance in a succinct and straight forward manner.