JPM G10 FX Views

  • Growth narrative vs. USD resilience: they expected USD softness, but the greenback is holding up, forcing more active trading.

  • Geopolitics / headlines: Iran, Greenland, (lack of) IEEPA ruling—lots of impulses, limited follow-through.

  • Positioning/hedging: EUR weakness is framed less as fresh conviction and more as portfolio hedging/neutralisation.

Practical implication

  • Expect more range behavior, faster mean reversion, and more sensitivity to headline shocks (especially in JPY and CHF).

🇪🇺 EUR: Small Long Bias, But It’s Tactical (Not a Love Story)

They acknowledge EUR is “drifting lower,” but interpret it as hedging flows rather than a clean fundamental shift.

What they’re doing

  • They cut EURPLN (no longer making progress).

  • They’re keeping a small EUR long bias “for choice” (i.e., risk/reward), despite the drift lower.

Key level that matters

  • EURUSD 200-day MA: 1.1587 flagged as “next key support.”

Their logic (translated)

  • If we go properly risk-off, new EUR cross shorts could get squeezed/unwound.

  • With an “erratic” US political backdrop, longer-term investors may start reassessing USD exposure as EUR dips.

🇬🇧 GBP: Data Beat, Market Shrugs — Next Week Is the Real Test

UK GDP beat expectations, but the note treats it as noisy/choppy, not regime-changing.

What matters next

  • LFS (labour market) and price data next week are the real catalysts.

  • Ramsden: as policy rate nears “neutral,” the pace of cuts gets trickier; neutral framed as mid-point of 2–4%.

Positioning / trade framing

  • They’re trying to maintain EURGBP longs because “location feels favourable.”

Levels called out

  • EURGBP 200-day: 0.8644

  • Risk point: 0.8600

  • Resistance: 0.8700

  • Cable range: 1.3400–1.3550

  • Flows: “modest” (i.e., not a flow-driven breakout setup).

🇯🇵 JPY: Volatile, Intervention Theater, Still Long USDJPY

This section is the most “trader-brained”: lots of intraday impulses, most of which they faded.

What happened (their interpretation)

  • Midday sharp move looked like a rate check (often a precursor to intervention).

  • Political headline (CDP + Komeito) noted but downplayed.

  • “KRW headlines from Bessent” looked scary but context “less interesting.”

Their stance

  • They fade the spikes and remain long USDJPY overall.

  • They’re looking to tactically fade 159.50–161.50 as MoF gets “tipped into intervention.”

Levels + flows

  • Support held: 158.15/25

  • Next support: 157.30/40

  • Flows: DHFs heavy JPY buying, SHFs smaller JPY selling (i.e., mixed but with real-money-ish JPY demand noted).

Near-term catalysts

  • Empire, Philly Fed, ILC later (US data as volatility triggers).

🇨🇭 CHF: Own It as Quality Hedge, Low Conviction Otherwise

They like CHF as a portfolio hedge because it’s “highest quality safe haven,” but admit it’s stuck in ranges.

Key points

  • EURCHF slightly lower on risk-off, but USD bid keeps USDCHF above 0.8000.

  • Systematics have been reducing CHF longs (3-day streak) → watch if that continues (could weaken the hedge bid at the margin).

🇨🇦 CAD & Scandies: CAD Bearish, SEK/NOK Shorts But Smaller

CAD

  • Desk seeing RM demand for CAD (6 sessions), but yesterday had systematic + corporate supply.

  • USD bid pushed USDCAD back above 1.3900.

  • Author remains bearish CAD (macro view), shorting CAD mainly vs high-beta EM (ZAR/MXN).

SEK/NOK

  • Iran headlines didn’t hit Scandies much; both EURSEK/EURNOK were lower.

  • If oil sells off and risk turns, they think EURNOK should pop higher.

  • They still hold EURSEK and EURNOK shorts, but reduced due to conviction/geopolitics.

  • They’d re-add EURSEK shorts on a meaningful rally (Sweden narrative “remains strong”).