Aussie CPI Jumps Again
The Aussie Dollar is trading higher today on the back of the latest Aussie data overnight which showed that inflation rose again last month. Annualised CPI was seen pushing back up to 3% from 2.8% prior, above the 2.9% the market was looking for. The data comes after RBA governor Bullock recently warned Australians that inflation was expected to remain elevated for some time. Additionally, with the latest Aussie jobs data last week showing furtehr tightness in the labour market, there is a strong case for the RBA to keep rates on hold for the foreseeable future, diluting easing expectations here. Traders had been eyeing a Q4 cut in recent months but with data refusing to play ball rate-cut pricing is tumbling once again with cuts now not seen until H1 2026.
GBPAUD Shorts
In terms of where best to express AUD longs, GBPAUD is a strong choice for now. Recent UK data weakness, concerns over the upcoming budget, and political turmoil in the UK, mean that GBP has room to weaken ahead of year end. With the prospect of a further BOE still very much live, there is tradable divergence between the BOE/RBA which should see GBPAUD pushing lower near-term. Any fresh UK data disappointments and/or strong Aussie data should reinforce this view.
Technical Views
GBPAUD
The downside break of the bull trend line suggests room for a deeper correction lower if bears can break current support at 2.0343. Below there, focus is on a test of the 2.0058 level next, in line with bearish momentum studies readings, while the deeper target lies at 1.97.
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With 10 years of experience as a private trader and professional market analyst under his belt, James has carved out an impressive industry reputation. Able to both dissect and explain the key fundamental developments in the market, he communicates their importance and relevance in a succinct and straight forward manner.