Daily Market Outlook, October 22, 2025
Patrick Munnelly, Partner: Market Strategy, Tickmill Group
Munnelly’s Macro Minute…
Gold and silver bounced back after experiencing their steepest declines in years, while Asian markets managed to trim earlier losses following a tepid session on Wall Street. Gold rebounded after suffering a sharp 2.9% drop on Tuesday, marking its largest single-day fall in over 12 years, although the yellow metal remains up over 55% year to date. Meanwhile, silver also regained some ground, recovering from a 7.1% plunge in the previous trading session. Asian markets' regional barometer saw shares dip 0.2%, though it had fallen more significantly earlier in the day. The downturn in the region's stock markets was partly driven by a selloff in precious metal-related stocks, stretching from Australia to China and Indonesia. In contrast, US stock futures inched upward during Asian trading hours after the S&P 500 Index ended the prior session with little change. The US dollar and Treasury yields remained relatively stable, while oil prices climbed higher amid reports of ongoing trade talks between the US and India. The negotiations suggest India may gradually scale back its imports of Russian crude oil. This renewed focus on precious metals comes after a robust rally earlier this year, spurred by heavy central bank purchases and concerns over fiscal challenges in developed nations. However, the recent sharp declines followed technical signals suggesting the earlier rapid gains had likely been overdone.
The UK’s September inflation figures brought an unexpected but welcome surprise. Headline inflation held steady at 3.8% year-on-year, defying expectations of a rise to 4.0%, as projected in August’s Monetary Policy Report. Similarly, core CPI edged down to 3.5% from 3.6%, contrary to forecasts of an increase to 3.7%. Services inflation remained at 4.7%, below the Bank of England's August projection of 5.0%. Several factors contributed to these shifts, including a sharp drop in airfares and a notable decline in live music prices. Additionally, a reduction in food prices—an area of particular concern for the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) due to its direct impact on consumers—offered further relief. On the other hand, transport costs rose again, though this was largely driven by the energy base effect rather than any significant underlying pressure. While this report provides a sigh of relief by steering inflation away from the uncomfortable territory of doubling the target rate, the gap between the current rate and the desired level remains significant. Despite some easing in wage pressures, more effort is likely needed to balance domestic supply and demand. For the markets, this data fuels speculation of a possible rate cut in November, especially with expectations of further fiscal tightening. However, caution is warranted. Another downside inflation surprise could shift the focus to the post-budget meeting in December, potentially putting it in play for monetary policy adjustments.
Three major Asia Pacific stock exchanges are cracking down on crypto-focused companies posing as listed firms. Hong Kong Exchanges & Clearing Ltd. has blocked at least five firms from adopting digital-asset treasury strategies, citing rules against large liquid holdings, according to confidential sources. None have received approval so far. Similar resistance has emerged in India and Australia. This pushback coincides with mounting pressure on cryptocurrencies and related firms, threatening a digital-assets rally that has dominated 2025. Bitcoin reached a record above 126K on October 6, up 18% year-to-date, driven by companies hoarding the token. Inspired by Michael Saylor’s $70 billion Strategy Inc., hundreds of imitators have emerged, often valued higher than their crypto holdings due to strong investor demand.
Overnight Headlines
Japan PM Takaichi Orders Economic Package To Tackle Inflation
Japan’s Exports Rebound For First Time In Five Months
Trump Tells Democrats No Meeting Until Govt Reopens
Trump Says Ukraine Summit With Putin Would Be A ‘Waste Of Time’
Trump Says He Spoke To Modi, India Will Ease Russian Oil Buys
Chinese Minister To Visit Brussels Amid Raw Materials Crunch
UK Treasury Expected To Close Tax Loophole For Online Giants
Debt Fund Defaults In UK Real Estate Soar Past 20%, Survey Shows
Anthropic, Google In Talks On Cloud Deal Worth Tens Of Billions
Netflix Revenue And Profit Grow As Ad Business Accelerates
Texas Instruments Q3 Revenue Up On Growth Across End Markets
Capital One Profit Tops Estimates, Announces $16B Buyback
Airbus, Thales, Leonardo Near Merger Deal Of Euro Space Businesses
US Pharma Price Probe Raises Threat Of New Drug Tariffs
US And Qatar Issue Energy And Trade Threats To EU Over Climate Rules
Advent International Exploring $2B Sale Of Parfums De Marly Business
FX Options Expiries For 10am New York Cut
(1BLN+ represents larger expiries, more magnetic when trading within daily ATR)
EUR/USD: 1.1595-1.1600 (1.7BLN), 1.1620-25 (885M), 1.1640-45 (527M)
1.1650-60 (1.6BLN)
USD/CHF: 0.7940-50 (411M). EUR/GBP: 0.8740 (796M)
GBP/USD: 1.3400-10 (483M), 1.3430 (282M), 1.3505 (397M)
AUD/USD: 0.6470 (290M), 0.6525-35 (891M)
NZD/USD: 0.5700 (1.1BLN)
USD/CAD: 1.4085 (678M), 1.4145-55 (1.1BLN)
USD/JPY: 151.00 (694M), 151.20 (400M), 152.00 (909M)
EUR/JPY: 177.50 (360M). AUD/JPY: 100.00 (430M)
CFTC Positions as of the Week Ending 9/10/25
October 1, 2025: During the shutdown of the federal government, Commitments of Traders Reports will not be published
Technical & Trade Views
SP500
Daily VWAP Bullish
Weekly VWAP Bullish
Above 6650 Target 6800
Below 6600 Target 6400
EURUSD
Daily VWAP Bearish
Weekly VWAP Bearish
Below 1.16 Target 1.1450
Above 1.1650 Target 1.1850
GBPUSD
Daily VWAP Bullish
Weekly VWAP Bearish
Below 1.34 Target 1.31
Above 1.3450 Target 1.3530
USDJPY
Daily VWAP Bearish
Weekly VWAP Bullish
Below 150 Trgaet 148.5
Above 151 Target 154
XAUUSD
Daily VWAP BEARISH
Weekly VWAP Bullish
Above 4200 Target 4500
Below 4050 Target 3950
BTCUSD
Daily VWAP Bullish
Weekly VWAP Bearish
Above 107k Target 116k
Below 106k Target 100k
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Past performance is not indicative of future results.
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Patrick has been involved in the financial markets for well over a decade as a self-educated professional trader and money manager. Flitting between the roles of market commentator, analyst and mentor, Patrick has improved the technical skills and psychological stance of literally hundreds of traders – coaching them to become savvy market operators!