Crude Rallies on Monday

Crude prices are pushing higher again on Monday following news of a fresh series of tit-for-tat attacks between the US and Iran over the weekend. The US reported that it attacked Iranian launch sites in Qeshm and Goruk as well as striking two drones while Iran attacked two US airbases, one in Kuwait. The attacks mark the third instance of tit-for-tat exchanges over the last week, once again fuelling fear that the ceasefire is at risk of collapsing.

Trump Says Deal Still Coming

Despite the attacks, Trump commented via Truth Social that Iran ‘really wants to make a deal’ signalling that he believed it will ‘all work out well in the end’. So far, neither side has shown a willingness to compromise on key issues such as the Strait of Hormuz or Iran’s nuclear program. As such, oil prices are vulnerable to a further drift higher this week as uncertainty persists. Indeed, any news of further attacks should see prices rising more firmly as uncertainty increases.

US Data on Watch

Though incoming headlines around the Iran war will remain the key driver, traders will also be watching a slew of US data this week. Recent data strength is feeding the view that US growth is reaccelerating, helped by AI investment which is started to bleed out into the wider economy. Traders will be closely watching ISM data this week with oil demand expectations likely to rise in response to any stronger data.

Technical Views

Crude

The sell off in crude has stalled for now into the triangle lows, just ahead of the 84.60 support level. While this region holds, a fresh rotation higher is feasible with 95.06 the initial resistance for bulls to note. Above there, 101.69 is the next level to watch.